What would happen if the Earth will be 2°C warmer?

If the world will become warmer by two degrees Celsius, we are doomed. To prevent this, the UN signed the Paris agreement, the international Treaty under which the signatories will attempt to maintain the average global temperature «2°C below pre-industrial levels». The pre-industrial level was when the plant started to poison your gas clear sky.

Over the past 20 years, this dvuhgolosyj threshold repeatedly referred to in political speeches and agreements adopted by the Council of the European Union «Big eight» (the G8, now the G7), and others.

Why 2 degrees — is it so important?

It All began in 1975, when economist William Nordhaus seen in the warming of the planet threat to the global economy. He asked his colleagues from the International Institute for applied systems analysis: can we control carbon dioxide? Nordhaus came to the conclusion that the increase in global average temperature to 2 degrees Celsius (the cause of which will be man-made emissions of carbon dioxide in air) will change the climate as had happened before for several hundred thousand years.

Where the economist got these 2 degrees? Nordhaus turned to science. Because he knew that carbon dioxide warms the planet, Nordhaus has estimated what would happen if the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere will double — that will result in a global increase of 2 degrees. He also predicted that at the current pace we are moving in the «danger zone» beyond 2 degrees and will be there in 2030.

Over the next 20 years, scientists have warned of the dangers of increasing temperatures associated with greenhouse gas emissions. In 1992 was created the framework UN Convention on climate change, aimed at halting dangerous human interference in the climate, but not limiting emissions or global temperature rise. It took another four years, below 2 degrees ingrained in the public consciousness and came to the Ministers of environment of the European Union. In the end, the UN ratified dvuhgolosyj limit in the Paris agreement… in 2016. After more than forty years after it first spoke Nordhaus.

It would Seem that what is two degrees? Every day we experience temperature fluctuations and stronger. However, climate change and global warming — is a long-term trend.

During the 20th century global average temperature was about 14 degrees, plus or minus a few tenths of a degree. Since 1880 the globe has warmed by almost a degree, but more than two thirds of this growth occurred after 1975, when Nordhaus wrote his article. Every year in the 21st century included in the top twenty warmest years.

The Last time the Earth was as warm as now, was 11,000 years ago. The oceans cover 70% of our planet's surface, and to heat this amount of water requires a lot of energy, not to mention about the air and the land. Therefore, the increase in average global temperature by 2 degrees means that sometimes the temperature increase exceeds the 2 degrees.

We already feel the consequences of their actions — so the weather seems more erratic than before. Hurricane Harvey has covered Houston in 2017, and its unprecedented downpour happened 10 times more likely due to human intervention in the natural course of the climate. Drought and heat waves also increased in certain regions of decreased rainfall and became active forest fires.

If we warm up by 2 degrees, the world would be much drier, which will impact on the economy, agriculture, infrastructure and weather conditions. The increase in temperature can harm ecosystems and species that can't adapt, including coral reefs and residents of the Arctic areas. Low coastal areas and small Islands around the world are at risk to disappear with increasing sea level associated with melting of Arctic ice and the ice sheet of Greenland. 2 degrees Celsius can determine the existence of whole peoples.

The intergovernmental panel on climate change — the organisation that advises the government about the causes and effects of climate change, is now exploring what the world would be if the average temperature will rise by three, four degrees or even higher. This can lead to the disappearance of entire species and the huge risks to global and regional food security. People will not be able to live and work in some parts of the world.

Whether large countries, especially China and India to limit carbon dioxide emissions to our planet remain below the level of 2 degrees? Unlikely. The research shows that with 95% chance will become warmer by 2 degrees by 2100, and negative impacts of climate change will be very bleak. We have the ability to reduce our emissions and keep the worst possible warming. But time is running out. Don't you agree? Tell us why .